[Zeping macro] 2016 economic L-type ending, 2017 liquidity ebbs who is in the nude swimming - the high-frequency judgment of 27
Summary:
After eight years of liquidity easing, global asset prices have risen sharply, the wealth gap has widened, but the economy has weakly recovered and lacks new momentum. Countries are looking for new ways. With the Fed’s interest rate hike as a sign, the monetarism experiment ended and the global liquidity turning point appeared. With Trump's entry into the White House and Brexit as a symbol, populism prevails and anti-globalization begins to flourish. This is the best time, this is the worst era.
In 2016, China's economic L-type ended, the policy shifted from steady growth to risk prevention and reform, and the liquidity cycle entered the recycling stage. Money shortage, debt disaster, real estate regulation, etc. After the liquidity ebbs, it is known who is in high capacity. Leveraged nude swimmer. Considering that the medium- and long-term loans exceeded expectations in December and January, corporate profits and export improvement pushed manufacturing investment recovery, real estate investment remained high, etc., the economy in the first quarter of 2017 was acceptable, and the second quarter of the third quarter was dragged down by real estate vehicles. bottom. Inflation is expected to be high in the first quarter, and then gradually fall back, generally moderate, so monetary policy remained neutral in the first half of the year. We maintain economic L-type, moderate inflation, currency neutrality, bullish gold, stock market ushered in the repair time window around the performance and reform, the bond market adjustment judgment.
In January, 30-city real estate sales were -18.2% year-on-year, an increase of 4.9 points from last week. Among them, the first, second and third tier cities were -23.3%, -9.8% and -25.9%, respectively, which were lower than last week's -4.5%, -9.1% and -22.9%. The land acquisition area decreased continuously year-on-year. The supply of land on the first line increased, and the supply of land in the remaining cities decreased slightly. Developers in first- and second-tier cities have strong demand for restocking, and it is expected that new construction will improve after the holiday. Retail sales in the auto market are mixed, retail sales start to turn cold after the tail effect of the purchase tax policy, and wholesale is required to replenish stocks due to the hot sales in the previous period. The two are still to be observed. The weak recovery in textile and apparel demand was mainly driven by high raw material prices. Exports rebounded slightly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production of industrial enterprises has weakened. Power generation coal consumption decreased slightly by 1.3 points year-on-year. Steel prices in January were 66.5% year-on-year, up 1.4 points from last week. Steel prices may continue to rise after the holiday. Cement prices continued to remain stable. Oil prices in the upstream industry were quickly adjusted back due to Brazil's refusal to cut production. The trend of coloration is different, the price growth of copper and aluminum is rising and the price of zinc is adjusted back. As the Spring Festival approaches, the prices of vegetables and pork are driven by demand. This week's liquidity tightened, R001 and R007 interest rates rose by 86.4 and 118.1 BP, respectively, the central bank's two-pronged stable liquidity before the holiday, this week's net money in the history of the highest. The US dollar weakened and the RMB exchange rate was stable in the short term.
Risk warning: exchange rate depreciation causes capital outflow to be out of control; real estate regulation is overkill; currency is too tight; Fed raises interest rate; reform is lower than expected; debt risk.
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1 Downstream: Real estate declines slowly, passenger car sales pick up before the holiday
In the third week of January, the sales volume of 30 large and medium-sized cities was 10.3% higher than that of the previous week, down 13.2 points from last week. Among them, the first, second and third tier cities fell by -22.3%, -3.3% and -13.2% respectively. As of January 19, the sales area of ​​the city's real estate in January decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, an increase of 4.9 points from the previous year's decline. Among them, the first, second and third tier cities were -23.3%, -9.8% and -25.9%, respectively, which were lower than last week's -4.5%, -9.1% and -22.9%. The land acquisition area decreased continuously year-on-year. Last week, the land transaction area of ​​100 large and medium-sized cities continued to increase by 21.4%. The land supply area of ​​first-tier cities has increased to 1.77 million square meters, and the supply area of ​​other cities has decreased slightly. Real estate investment rebounded more than expected in December, up 9.2 points from November. The high sales volume of excavators and heavy trucks in the early stage also indicates that the real estate investment will not fall too far. Due to the strong inventory demand of developers in the first and second tier cities, it is expected that the new construction will show a good year-on-year growth after the Spring Festival.
The retail market of the auto market is mixed. According to data released by the National Federation of Passengers, the retail sales of passenger cars in the first week and the second week of January were -1% and 19%, respectively, and the cumulative growth rate of retail sales in 1-2 weeks was 9%. In the first week of this month, the wholesale of passenger cars increased by 26% year-on-year, and the wholesale volume in the second week increased by 10%. At the end of 2016, due to the expected adjustment of the purchase tax concession for 17 years, the passenger car has the possibility of overdraft consumption at the end of the year, which led to the retail growth rate at the beginning of this year is significantly lower than last year. On the other hand, the car dealers have low inventory due to the hot sales last year, so Wholesale growth is still relatively high, but the sustainability is weak.
Textile and apparel demand weakened, but driven by soaring chemical prices, the price of textile raw materials rose more than the price of finished products. Keqiao Textile Index was 1.21% in January, slightly better than 1.11% in December of 16 years. The raw material and grey cloth prices increased by 3.8% and 1.4% respectively in January, an increase of 1.5 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The prices of finished products represented by home textiles and apparel fabrics fell by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year.
The box office market continued to be sluggish this week. The box office receipts and movie watching figures were -19.5% and -18.3%, respectively, up 5.3 and 6.3 percentage points from last week. The film screenings were -1.9% lower than the previous week, down 1.3 points from last week. Movie box office receipts and movie viewings and screenings were -14.1%, 13.3%, and 33.2%, respectively, down from last week.
Export demand continued to pick up slightly. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) grew by 48.4% year-on-year in January, up 0.5 points from 47.9% in December. The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 9.1% in January, an increase of 0.6 from December. Percentage points. This round of export recovery benefited from the depreciation of the RMB and the improvement of the external demand environment. In the first quarter of 17th, we must be alert to the trade war with China after Trump took office.
2 Midstream: Power consumption coal consumption fell slightly, steel prices rose cement prices stable
This week, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups decreased by 2.6% from the previous month, a decrease of 1.5 points from last week. As of January 19, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generations was 685,000 tons, up from 620,800 tons in the same period in December. This week's average daily power consumption increased by 11.7% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 1.6 points from last week's 13.3%. Industrial production was relatively stable in January.
The proportion of profitable steel mills this week was 74.2%, an increase of 3.1 points from last week. The blast furnace operating rate was 73.9%, an increase of 1.5 points from last week. This week, rebar prices rose 2.1% this week, up 2.3 percentage points from last week. January rebar prices were 66.5% year-on-year, up 1.4 points from last week and down from 76.5% in December. The China Steel Industry Association's 2017 Board of Directors has reported that the central government has clearly eliminated the elimination of backward production capacity, especially the thorough cleaning of “strip steel†as an important part of this year's capacity-removal work, which is likely to result in the phased supply of construction steel in the first half of the year. In short supply, steel prices may continue to rise after the holiday.
Cement prices remain stable. This week, the national cement price index fell slightly by 0.18% from the previous month. The cement price in January was 29.6% year-on-year, down 0.2 points from last week and higher than 28.6% in December.
3 Upstream: Trump suppresses the dollar, Brazil refuses to cut production and drags oil prices
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said that the US dollar has been "excessively strong", causing US companies to lose their competitive edge. "A strong dollar is pushing us into the abyss." The market worried about a renewed warming, the US dollar index fell 0.1% this week, 2.8% in January, down 0.4 percentage points from last week, down from 3.7% in December.
This week, CRB industrial raw materials index was -0.4%, up 22.0% in January, up 0.4 percentage points from last week, down from 23.1% in December. The South China Industrial Products Index was -1.8%, compared with 69.8% in January, up 2.8 percentage points from last week, down from 73.4% in December. The South China Agricultural Products Index was 1.2%, compared with 22.3% in January, up 0.9 from last week. The percentage point is lower than December's 23.6% year-on-year.
Following the surge in US shale oil production, Brazil has rejected the Saudi Arabian production cut request, and questions about whether the OPEC production reduction agreement can resolve the contradiction between supply and demand in the crude oil market. After Brazil’s voice, oil prices fell rapidly. This week, Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.3% month-on-month, compared with 73.6% in January, down 0.9 percentage points from last week, significantly higher than December's 41.2%.
The growth rate of non-ferrous metals has slowed down. LME copper prices were -1.5% on a week-on-week basis, compared with 27.1% in January, up 1.4 percentage points from last week and up from 22.4% in December. LME aluminum prices were 2.3% on a week-on-week basis, compared with 19.0% in January, up 2.0 percentage points from last week and 15.8% from December. LME zinc price was 1.4% on a week-on-week basis, compared with 76.5% in January, up 2.7 percentage points from last week and up from 75.5% from December.
This week, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.5% from the previous month and 142.5% from January, down 1.1 percentage points from last week, significantly higher than December's 102.1%.
4 Price: Spring Festival is approaching, food prices are rising
The temperature turned cold and the Spring Festival approached, and the price of vegetables rose. This week, the average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture rose by 4.6%, the Qianhai Vegetable Wholesale Price Index rose by 4.6%, and the vegetable wholesale price index in Shandong rose by 12.3%. The average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables for monitoring in the Ministry of Agriculture, the Qianhai Vegetable Wholesale Price Index and the vegetable wholesale price index in Shandong were 0.6%, 0.7% and 5.9% respectively in January, up 0.7, 0.7 and 1.1 respectively from last week. The percentage points are lower than, lower than and higher than 5.1%, 7.5% and 5.4% in December.
As the Spring Festival approaches, pork demand is booming. The average wholesale price of pork in the Ministry of Agriculture rose by 1.2% this week, up 2.2% year-on-year in January, up 0.6 percentage points from last week and down from 3.2% in December. The average retail price of pork in 36 cities was unchanged from last week, up 5.9% year-on-year in January, up 0.1 percentage point from last week and down from 6.3% in December. The average retail price of beef and mutton in 36 cities was -0.9% and -1.7% in January, respectively, lower than and above -0.5% and -3.3% in December. The average retail price of grass carp and carp in 36 cities was 3.1% and 1.2% respectively in January, higher than and lower than 2.8% and 1.9% in December.
5 Currency: The central bank maintains a stable liquidity before the holiday
After the money has evaporated, market liquidity has remained tight. As the Spring Festival approached, the funding side began to tighten again, and interbank interest rates continued to rise. In order to maintain the stability of the pre-holiday liquidity, the central bank not only provided a large amount of liquidity through public market operations, but also provided temporary liquidity support for large commercial banks through the “temporary liquidity convenience†operation on January 20th. . Taking into account the constraints of RMB stability and housing market regulation, the tool operates for 28 days, and the central bank has a clear purpose, only to alleviate short-term liquidity.
The central bank announced on January 20th: In order to protect the concentrated demand for cash before the Spring Festival, promote the liquidity of the banking system and the smooth operation of the money market, the People's Bank of China has a higher proportion of cash inflows through the “temporary liquidity convenience†operation. Large commercial banks provide temporary liquidity support with an operating period of 28 days, and the cost of funds is roughly the same as the open market operating rate for the same period. This operation can more effectively achieve the transmission of liquidity through market mechanisms.
This week, the central bank’s open market operation currency was 1.38 billion yuan, with a return of 250 billion yuan and a net investment of 1.13 billion yuan, the largest single-week net release in history, with a net investment of 270 billion yuan on Tuesday, the highest in a year. As of January 20, the 1-day inter-bank repurchase plus rights ratio was 2.9740%, an increase of 86.45 BP from last week; the 7-day inter-bank repurchase plus rights ratio was 3.5660%, an increase of 118.07 BP from last week. The one-year government bond yield was 2.6413%, down 4.53 BP from last week; the 10-year bond yield was 3.2440%, up 4.18 BP from last week.
The credit spreads for different periods increased this week. The credit spread of 1-year AAA corporate bonds expanded by 21.41 BP, and the credit spread of 10-year AAA corporate bonds expanded by 1.07 BP.
The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is slightly slower. In the third week of January, the US dollar appreciated by 0.31% against the central parity of the RMB, the US dollar against the RMB spot exchange rate appreciated by 0.36%, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 0.10%.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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